Trends to Watch

Talking Tariffs

• U.S. Strikes Trade Deal with Taiwan: Today (January 15), the U.S. and Taiwan signed a trade deal that will cut reciprocal tariffs and auto part tariffs on Taiwan and aim to drive Taiwanese investment in semiconductor manufacturing in the U.S. It is unclear when the agreement will be implemented. Provisions of the deal include:
  • The U.S. will reduce its reciprocal tariff rate on Taiwan from 20% to no more than 15%.
  • Taiwanese auto parts, timber, lumber, and wood derivative products will face a Section 232 duty capped at 15%, as opposed to the 25% duty imposed on most other nations.
  • Taiwanese generic pharmaceuticals, their generic ingredients, aircraft components, and unavailable natural resources will not be subject to any U.S. reciprocal tariffs.
  • Provisions concerning any future Section 232 duties on Taiwanese semiconductors: Taiwanese businesses building new U.S. semiconductor capacity may import up to 2.5 times that planned capacity without paying Section 232 duties, with a lower preferential rate for above-quota imports. Additionally, Taiwanese businesses that complete new chip production projects in the U.S. will be able to import 1.5 times their new U.S. production capacity without paying Section 232 duties.
  • Taiwanese semiconductor and technology companies will invest at least $250 billion in the U.S.
• New Section 232 Tariffs on Semiconductors: President Trump has signed a proclamation introducing new Section 232 duties on semiconductors. Certain advanced computing chips, including the NVIDIA H200 and AMD MI325X, are subject to a 25% tariff beginning January 15, 2026.
  • The order is limited in scope and contains multiple exclusions: semiconductors imported for use in U.S. data centers, repairs or replacements performed in the U.S., research and development in the U.S., and certain other domestic use cases are exempt from the new tariff.
  • Per the proclamation, President Trump may also implement “broader tariffs” on semiconductors and their derivatives, along with an accompanying tariff offset program.
• President Trump Establishes Process to Secure Critical Minerals: Following the conclusion of a Section 232 probe into critical mineral imports, President Trump issued a proclamation that lays the groundwork for ensuring adequate U.S. access to critical minerals. According to the proclamation, the U.S. will look to negotiate agreements with other nations to secure critical mineral supplies, and may consider imposing minimum import prices for specific critical minerals. If the U.S. does not reach “satisfactory agreements” with other nations, President Trump may consider imposing tariffs and other measures.
  • The U.S. is 100% net-import-reliant for 12 critical minerals and lacks sufficient domestic processing capacity to avoid downstream net import reliance. Currently, China supplies 90% of the world’s rare earths, while Kazakhstan is the world’s largest uranium producer.
• U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) to Transition to Electronic Refunds: Beginning February 6, 2026, CBP will issue all refunds electronically. CBP will no longer issue checks for refunds, except in limited circumstances.
  • To receive electronic refunds from CBP, importers must have an Automated Commercial Environment (ACE) Portal account. Those who already have ACE Portal access can add and manage their Automated Clearing House (ACH) refund information within their account.
  • To avoid delayed refunds, importers should confirm ACE Portal access and start the electronic refund enrollment process today. For guidance on applying for an ACE Portal account and setting up electronic refunds, check out our blog.
• A Potential 25% Tariff on Trading Partners with Iran: In a January 12 Truth Social post, President Trump announced that any countries “doing business” with Iran will face a 25% tariff, effective immediately. President Trump has not issued an executive order or Federal Register notice concerning the potential duty, and it remains unclear which countries are impacted.
  • Iran’s largest trading partner is China. In 2024, Iran imported about $17.8 billion in Chinese goods, while Iranian exports to China totaled $14.6 billion. China is also the biggest purchaser of Iranian oil, importing more than 80% of Iran’s shipped oil in 2025. Iran’s other major trading partners include Turkey, Pakistan, and India.
• International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) Tariff Case: The Supreme Court may soon rule on the legality of the Trump administration’s IEEPA tariffs. Although the Court does not announce in advance which cases it will decide on, a decision could come as soon as January 20 or 21, when the justices are next in session.
  • If the Supreme Court rules against the Trump administration’s IEEPA tariffs, CBP would likely halt tariff collection immediately while implementing a refund process. The Trump administration could potentially leverage other statutes—including Sections 301, 232, 122, and 338—to re-implement those tariffs or introduce new ones.
  • If the Supreme Court upholds the tariffs, the case could return to the lower courts for another review. Another broad possibility is a ruling that provides partial relief: for example, the Court could uphold some IEEPA tariffs while striking down others.
  • During November’s oral arguments, several justices challenged the Trump administration’s assertion that the tariffs aim to “regulate importation” in response to rising trade deficits and a fentanyl-induced public health crisis, and questioned whether the tariffs ultimately serve as taxes that generate revenue from American citizens. The Court also raised concerns over the complexity of refunding already-collected duties, should the Court rule against the tariffs.
  • Check out our live blog for the latest developments.
• Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC) eFiling Mandate: On July 8, 2026, the CPSC will implement electronic filing requirements for CPSC-regulated consumer products at the time of entry. For CPSC-regulated products imported into a foreign trade zone, the eFiling requirement will take effect on January 8, 2027.
  • These upcoming changes will impact a wide range of businesses, especially those importing multiple distinct products. Impacted businesses face new compliance requirements, filing procedures, and potential penalties.
  • Importers are advised to start the registration process on the CPSC eFiling portal, which is currently in the voluntary stage, as soon as possible. Flexport is actively testing eFiling with our customers who have Business Accounts set up in the CPSC’s portal. Check out our blog for more details.

Calculate your tariff and landed cost impacts in real time with the Flexport Tariff Simulator.

Ocean

TRANS-PACIFIC EASTBOUND (TPEB)

• Capacity and Demand:
  • January capacity remains relatively high, with estimated levels at 80-85%. Capacity is projected to see a slight uptick to 90% in the first half of February.
  • A blank sailing period related to Lunar New Year capacity adjustments is expected to start in the second half of February and continue through the first week of March.
  • Volumes have remained steady since the holiday season in December. This year’s pre-Lunar-New-Year rush has been “spread out,” partially due to the late holiday this year, in contrast to the sharp volume spikes seen in previous years. As of now, we have not seen a further uptick in volumes.
  • Space is generally open across most gateways, except for some tightening strings.
• Freight Rates:
  • Most carriers have withdrawn the January 15 General Rate Increase (GRI) due to soft volumes, while others have postponed it for one week. Some carriers have given indications that they may extend current levels into February.
  • Carriers have pushed Peak Season Surcharges (PSSs) to February, with some delaying them until March. With Lunar New Year just over four weeks away, these actions indicate a lack of “peak pressure” in the current market.

FAR EAST WESTBOUND (FEWB)

• Capacity and Demand:
  • Shippers are strategically frontloading cargo. Data indicates that this year's pre-Lunar-New-Year demand peak began approximately six weeks earlier than historical averages. This structural change has transformed January—typically a transitional month—into the focal point of shipping pressure, with European importers racing to secure inventory before the mid-February factory shutdowns.
  • Carriers have responded to this compressed peak by deploying a record-breaking 1.15 million TEUs of capacity for January, while simultaneously maintaining a remarkably low blank sailing rate (removing ~25,000 TEUs). This divergence from the traditional strategy of “limiting supply to support rates” signals a shift toward volume maximization to clear cargo before the holiday break.
  • In Northern Europe, severe winter weather has resulted in critical disruptions at key hubs like Hamburg and Rotterdam. In Hamburg, extreme conditions have slashed terminal truck handling capacity from 170 slots per hour to just 30. Meanwhile, Rotterdam faces vessel wait times of up to 48 hours and yard density levels near critical thresholds.
• Freight Rates:
  • The market is maintaining firm upward momentum through January, driven by scarce space and the urgency of pre-holiday bookings. This bullish sentiment is underpinned by strong volume pressure, allowing carriers to maintain rate levels well above the previous quarter's average.
  • Carriers have successfully established higher Freight All Kinds (FAK) rate levels for the second half of the month, indicating strong pricing power. Carriers have pushed through with general rate restorations amid record capacity injections, driven by clients who need to move goods before the holiday.
  • As Lunar New Year approaches, the associated shipping peak is projected to persist until early February. While elevated FAK rates may face some discounting pressure, the likelihood of a rate collapse remains minimal as sustained demand supports the market.

TRANS-ATLANTIC WESTBOUND (TAWB)

• Capacity and Demand:
  • North Europe and West Mediterranean: Demand has remained soft this month. Carriers have planned a modest capacity withdrawal until mid-January to compensate for soft demand.
  • East Mediterranean: Demand remains relatively firm compared to North Europe and the West Mediterranean.
• Equipment:
  • Critical container and chassis shortages persist, especially in Austria, Slovakia, Hungary, Southern and Eastern Germany, and Portugal. This has led to continued delays amid weak demand, port congestion at key gateways, and ongoing equipment tightness.
• Freight Rates:
  • North Europe and West Mediterranean: Rates remain stable.
  • East Mediterranean: Carriers have decided to postpone the previously announced January 1 Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) to March 1.

INDIAN SUBCONTINENT TO NORTH AMERICA

• Capacity and Demand:
  • Demand from the Indian subcontinent to the U.S. has picked up in January, even after last August’s tariff escalation.
  • To the U.S. East Coast: Generally, space is available on base-port-to-base-port lanes. In the last week, both CMA CGM (INDAMEX) and Maersk (MECL) have sent vessels through the Suez on their India-to-U.S. and U.S.-to-India service strings. Maersk continues to operate case by case. Meanwhile, CMA CGM is proceeding to route through the Suez on a weekly basis, beginning with the VERDI vessel.
  • To the U.S. West Coast: January capacity remains available, related to supply dynamics on the TPEB into the U.S. West Coast.
• Freight Rates:
  • To the U.S. East Coast: Rates are holding steady into the second half of January. If the market continues to see increased booking numbers, market rates may increase.
  • To the U.S. West Coast: Rate levels remain low, with possible increases if demand from India steadies.

Air

• North China:
  • The market is showing early signs of a post-holiday rebound as international orders begin to climb. While overall demand is still near yearly lows, ecommerce volumes and general cargo inquiries for major U.S. gateways like Los Angeles and New York have seen a noticeable uptick.
  • Despite this recovery in booking activity, the market remains oversupplied. Shippers may see a minor stabilization or slight upward trend in rates as volumes rebuild, but the ongoing supply-demand imbalance continues to keep the overall environment soft.
• South China:
  • Rates to North America remain consistent with previous levels.
  • Rates to Europe are seeing a minor lift due to weather-related disruptions, but currently lack strong demand support.
  • Providers are open to all cargo types. However, we recommend monitoring the European situation closely to manage potential backlog clearance.
• Taiwan:
  • The market mirrors last week’s conditions, but is expected to see a slight surge in volumes starting this week.
  • Rates for European lanes have already begun to climb, and space is tightening due to weather disruptions.
• Vietnam:
  • Demand at Hanoi (HAN) is currently weak, leading to softer pricing for North American routes as the market adjusts to the post-holiday period.
  • Meanwhile, Ho Chi Minh City (SGN) remains stable, with steady demand and no significant rate changes for European lanes.
• Malaysia:
  • Soft demand has led to a decline in rates for North American trade lanes.
  • Capacity to most U.S. destinations is readily available.
  • Shippers should note that adverse weather is driving congestion at several European gateways, such as Amsterdam and London, due to flight cancellations and aircraft payload constraints.
• Thailand:
  • While most factories have resumed normal operations, demand has not yet fully recovered. We anticipate an upward trend in the second half of January, and continue to recommend booking 3 to 5 days in advance.
• Indonesia:
  • Capacity at Jakarta is slightly constrained, despite moderate post-holiday demand. Space availability is expected to improve after next week.
  • Shipments to Europe face congestion at key hubs like Amsterdam and London, given weather-related restrictions. Shippers are advised to plan bookings with a lead time of 5 to 7 days.

(Source: Flexport)

Please reach out to your account representative for details on any impacts to your shipments.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

Webinars

North America Freight Market Update Live

Thursday, January 22 @ 9:00am PT / 12:00pm ET

Ocean Timeliness Indicator

Transit time increased from China to the U.S. West Coast and China to North Europe, and decreased from China to the U.S. East Coast.

Week to January 12, 2026

Transit time increased from 32.5 to 33 days from China to the U.S. West Coast; decreased from 57 to 55.4 days from China to the U.S. East Coast; and increased from 57.1 to 59.5 days from China to North Europe.

See the full report and read about our methodology here.