Trends to Watch

Talking Tariffs

• International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) Tariff Litigation Developments: On September 9, the Supreme Court agreed to hear arguments on the legality of President Trump’s IEEPA tariffs. Oral arguments are scheduled to take place in early November; in the meantime, IEEPA tariffs will remain in effect.
  • About a week prior, President Trump had petitioned the Supreme Court for an “expedited ruling” on overturning a federal appeals court decision that found his IEEPA tariffs illegal.
  • If the Supreme Court upholds the federal appeals court’s ruling, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) would halt all collection of IEEPA tariffs and many businesses would potentially qualify for refunds. Some duties would be refunded proactively by CBP, while others would require importers to file post summary corrections and protests.
  • Duties impacted by the ongoing case include IEEPA “fentanyl” tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, along with IEEPA reciprocal duties on the rest of the world. The case does not affect non-IEEPA tariffs, such as steel and aluminum tariffs.
  • For more details, check out our live blog.
• U.S.-Japan Trade Deal Set to Take Effect on September 16: President Trump signed an executive order last week that will implement a trade agreement between the U.S. and Japan, effective September 16. Terms include:
  • The U.S. will impose a baseline tariff of 15% on most Japanese imports. Japanese goods with a Most Favored Nation (MFN) tariff of less than 15% will be subject to a duty equal to 15%, while goods with an MFN tariff that exceeds 15% will be subject to a duty equal to that MFN tariff.
  • The U.S. will reduce duties on Japanese autos and auto parts from 25% to 15%. Japanese imports subject to sector-specific duties—including duties on autos and auto parts, aerospace products, generic pharmaceuticals, and unavailable natural resources—are exempt from reciprocal duties.
  • Japan will invest $550 billion in the U.S., ramp up purchases of American agricultural goods, and expand market access for American manufacturers across key sectors.
  • The modified tariff structure will apply retroactively to Japanese goods that are “entered for consumption or withdrawn from warehouse for consumption” on or after August 7, 2025.
• President Trump Modifies Scope of Products Exempt from Reciprocal Tariffs: Effective September 8, President Trump has modified the scope of Annex II, a list of products exempt from IEEPA reciprocal duties. Per the executive order:
  • 52 new HTS codes were added to Annex II, while 131 HTS codes were removed.
  • Nearly all copper products have been removed from Annex II, presumably because they are now tariffed under Section 232.
  • 1,908 HTS subheadings listed in the order may qualify for a reciprocal tariff exemption, provided that the country of origin has finalized an agreement on reciprocal trade with the U.S.

Calculate and analyze your real-time tariff and landed cost impacts using the Flexport Tariff Simulator.

Ocean

TRANS-PACIFIC EASTBOUND (TPEB)

• Capacity and Demand:
  • The “pull forward” of shipments to beat potential tariffs this year has led to a subdued summer and a quiet lead-up to Golden Week 2025. Demand is not projected to see a significant increase, and the market is not experiencing a major upsurge in volume.
  • Despite quiet demand overall, some carriers are still experiencing overcapacity. In response, some are implementing planned blank sailings, such as Premier Alliance’s temporarily suspended PS5 service.
• Container Incident at the Port of Long Beach:
  • On Tuesday (September 9), approximately 75 shipping containers fell off a ZIM-chartered vessel at Pier G at the Port of Long Beach. The vessel had arrived from China via ZIM’s Trans-Pacific ZEX service.
  • Flexport had 36 containers on board at the time of the incident, and our team has already reached out to customers with shipments on the vessel. We will continue working with ZIM and port officials to determine exactly which containers were impacted by the fall.
  • So far, responders have recovered two cargo containers from the bottom of the basin. The Coast Guard is maintaining a 500-yard safety zone around the vessel involved in Tuesday’s incident, but cargo operations at the port remain largely unaffected otherwise. As recovery efforts continue, the port’s priority is ensuring the safety of the vessel crews, longshoremen, and unimpacted cargo.
  • Visit our live blog for details on timelines, cargo release, General Average declarations, and cargo insurance.
• Equipment:
  • Equipment availability has shown slight improvement since late July, with no major equipment shortage concerns overall.
• Freight Rates:
  • The Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) has been postponed until October 15. In light of softened market demand, no PSS has been implemented for the pre-Golden-Week period.
  • Carriers have successfully implemented a GRI for September 1, and we are expecting a further increase in pricing in the second half of the month.

FAR EAST WESTBOUND (FEWB)

• Capacity and Demand:
  • Space for the second half of September remains open, and carriers are actively seeking additional cargo to support loadings.
  • Demand has dropped significantly; no recovery is expected before Golden Week.
• Freight Rates:
  • The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) fell by another $166/TEU in Week 37, reaching $1,315/TEU.
  • The Freight All Kinds (FAK) market is projected to decline by another 5–10% in the second half of September, as weak demand continues to weigh on rates.
  • Q4 long-term contract negotiations have begun. Carriers are still hesitant to bring long-term offers below current FAK levels, but have indicated that PSSs may be reduced or removed in Q4.

TRANS-ATLANTIC WESTBOUND (TAWB)

• Capacity and Demand:
  • Antwerp: Heavy congestion persists. Yard utilization still exceeds 90%, while dwell time is at eight days.
  • Rotterdam, Hamburg, Bremerhaven: Ports continue to see 75–95% yard utilization, along with vessel delays of two to four days.
  • South Mediterranean (Piraeus, Genoa, Valencia): Heavy congestion continues, with vessel delays of three to six days.
• Equipment:
  • Equipment shortages persist in parts of Central and Eastern Europe, impacting inland origins. Overall capacity remains stable.
• Freight Rates:
  • Overall capacity is stable. Spot rates from North Europe to the U.S. East Coast are averaging $1,900/FEU as of early September, according to Xeneta. This represents a ~5% decline since June.

INDIAN SUBCONTINENT TO NORTH AMERICA

• Capacity and Demand:
  • Capacity to the U.S. East Coast: The tariff escalation that took effect on August 27 continues to drive softening demand from India. Supply is outstripping demand, and we are seeing capacity management in full effect through September for Indian-subcontinent-specific services. Although the tariff escalation is specific to India, countries like Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh rely on services specific to the Indian subcontinent to U.S. East Coast route for weekly capacity. Demand will likely remain status quo from those countries, but capacity will be reduced.
  • Capacity to the U.S. West Coast: Capacity is widely available, given continued oversupply impacting major TPEB services that move cargo from the Indian subcontinent to the U.S. West Coast. Blank sailings have been announced, impacting direct services from Northwest India to the U.S. West Coast.
• Freight Rates:
  • Cargo moving to the U.S. East Coast: The market has softened due to the drop in demand from India in light of the tariff escalation. With carriers enacting capacity management strategies and as the tariff situation evolves, it is uncertain how much market levels will decline in the coming weeks.
  • Cargo moving to the U.S. West Coast: Oversupply on core TPEB lanes has continued to keep the market soft.

Air

• Northern China: The TPEB air freight market has experienced a turnaround this week, with capacity growing constrained across U.S. gateways.
  • Apple's New Product Introduction (NPI) has squeezed available capacity from China to major U.S. destinations. Additional pressure is coming from increased transshipment volumes from Vietnam, driven by post-holiday demand recovery. This dual capacity squeeze is driving freight rates upward for both U.S. West and East Coast destinations, marking a significant shift from previous market conditions.
• South China: TPEB and FEWB markets are unconstrained. Both ecommerce and traditional cargo demand remain similar to last week, and overall market rates have dropped slightly.
• Taiwan (TW): The U.S. West Coast remains at levels similar to last week, but market demand is expected to soften after month’s end. TPEB market demand has eased slightly compared to the past two months; however, freight rates have not dropped significantly due to high-tech cargo continuing to bolster the market.
• Vietnam (VN): The market has stabilized after the holiday, with demand expected to pick up this week. Demand to Los Angeles (LAX), Amsterdam (AMS), and London (LHR) remains strong, with some carriers still reporting tight connections on these lanes.
• South Korea (KR): Demand remains slow for TPEB and FEWB routes, with space still open. Direct flight rates are seeing small increases, while transship rates have held steady since August.
  • Up ahead: the National Airport Workers’ Solidarity, which represents 15,000 workers at airports around the country, announced that they will launch a general strike beginning September 19. Currently, the strike is anticipated to last until Chuseok (October 6). However, there should be no significant impact, as most of the airport sites involved are unrelated to airport ground handling.
• Malaysia (MY): Current demand from Malaysia remains relatively soft; carriers are reporting available capacity on both TPEB and FEWB lanes. Freight rates have remained largely stable, and no significant fluctuations have been observed.
• India: A surge in cargo movement to the U.S. has resulted in space constraints at origin stations like Mumbai (BOM), Bangalore (BLR), and Chennai (MAA). This has led to delays in airlines accepting shipments. Delhi (DEL) is seeing relatively better space availability, but flights to the U.S. are still tight. Rates are increasing steadily.
• Pakistan: Intercity movement delays due to urban flooding and monsoon rains continue, and the Pakistan Meteorological Department indicated that they are expecting the rain to continue through today (September 11). In Sialkot/Karachi, about 90% of the workforce is unable to reach factories. Local transporters have warned that this will disrupt supply chains and cargo flow and add at least two more days of total transit time. Please expect delays and higher rates in the coming weeks.

(Source: Flexport)

Please reach out to your account representative for details on any impacts to your shipments.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

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Ocean Timeliness Indicator

Transit times from China to the U.S. West Coast and China to the U.S. East Coast both experienced modest increases, while the route from China to North Europe saw a notable reduction in transit time.

Week to September 8, 2025

Transit time from China to the U.S. West Coast increased by 0.5 days, rising from 32.4 to 32.9 days. The China to U.S. East Coast route saw a 0.8-day increase, moving from 64.3 to 65.1 days. Lastly, transit time from China to North Europe decreased by 3 days, falling from 62.5 to 59.5 days.

See the full report and read about our methodology here.