Trends to Watch

[Air - Global] (Data Source: WorldACD/Accenture)

• China's Inbound Tonnage Decline: In the week leading up to the Lunar New Year, China experienced a significant drop in inbound air cargo tonnages by 15% week-over-week, contributing to a global tonnage fall of 12%. This was against a backdrop of only a 2% decline in China's outbound tonnages, indicating a sharp contrast in trade dynamics as the holiday approached.
• Stable to Rising Average Global Rates: Despite the drop in tonnages, average global air cargo rates remained steady and even saw a slight increase during week 6, mirroring trends from the previous year. This suggests resilience in pricing amid fluctuating volumes.
• Intra-Asia Pacific Market Slowdown: A notable 17% fall in intra-Asia Pacific traffic largely drove a 3% global tonnage decline, highlighting the region's quick response to the Lunar New Year compared to long-haul markets. Conversely, tonnages from Asia Pacific to certain regions like Central & South America increased, demonstrating varied market reactions.
• Year-on-Year Tonnage and Capacity Increase: Comparatively, weeks 5 and 6 saw a 10% increase in worldwide tonnages year-on-year, with significant rises from Asia Pacific and Middle East & South Asia origins. This was accompanied by a substantial 16% increase in global air cargo capacity, indicating an overall growth in the air cargo sector from last year.
  Pricing Trends and Pre-Covid Comparison: Despite a year-on-year drop in average worldwide rates by 14%, the gap is narrowing, and rates remain significantly above pre-Covid levels (34% increase compared to February 2019), suggesting a sustained recovery and adaptation in the air cargo market post-pandemic.

[Ocean - ISC to North America]

• Rates: Increased due to 2H February General Rate Increases (GRIs), but as of week 8 are starting to mitigate. Overall levels still remain significantly inflated compared to November levels at +250% to United States East Coast (USEC) BP and +90% to United States West Coast (USWC) BP.
• Space: Vessels delayed in getting to destination and back to origin are resulting in a lack of capacity. The short-term disruption is expected to be more challenging, while longer term we expect some normalization due to new builds, faster vessel speeds, and implementation of idle capacity.
• Equipment: Although equipment availability is carrier-specific for each port of loading, the overall situation is challenging. This is especially true at inland container depots and smaller/less connected ports.

Please reach out to your account representative for details on any impacts to your shipments.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

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